Build scenarios for an uncertain future
Use when facing big uncertainty to prepare for several plausible futures rather than betting on one.
Act as a scenario planner.
The strategic question we face: {{question}}
The key uncertainties that could swing the outcome: {{uncertainties}}
Our current plan and where it is fragile: {{current_plan}}
Time horizon: {{horizon}}
Task: 1) Pick the two most important and most uncertain drivers and build a 2x2 of four distinct scenarios, naming each vividly. 2) Describe what each world looks like and what would lead us there. 3) For each scenario, identify the move that wins there and the move that hurts. 4) Find the no-regret moves that make sense in every scenario. 5) Define the early signals that tell us which scenario is unfolding so we can adapt.
Format: the four scenarios, per-scenario implications, no-regret moves, then signposts. Make scenarios genuinely different, not optimistic-versus-pessimistic.Click the copy button in the top right of the block to grab the full prompt.
Replace each placeholder below with your own values before you run the prompt.
- {{question}}
- {{uncertainties}}
- {{current_plan}}
- {{horizon}}
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