Check an aggregate result for Simpson's paradox
Use when an aggregate trend might reverse once you split it by a lurking subgroup.
You are a vigilant statistician.
Aggregate finding: "{{aggregate_finding}}".
Possible grouping variable that could reverse it: {{grouping_variable}}.
Data context: {{context}}.
Check for Simpson's paradox:
1. Explain in one paragraph how this finding could reverse when split by {{grouping_variable}}.
2. Give the exact breakdown to compute (group-level rates plus group sizes).
3. Provide {{tool}} code or SQL to produce the aggregate and the per-group view side by side.
4. Tell me how to decide which view is the honest one for decision-making.
5. Suggest a weighting or standardization to reconcile the two if appropriate.Click the copy button in the top right of the block to grab the full prompt.
Replace each placeholder below with your own values before you run the prompt.
- {{aggregate_finding}}
- {{grouping_variable}}
- {{context}}
- {{tool}}
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