Run a Monte Carlo forecast with uncertainty
Use to forecast an uncertain outcome as a range of probabilities instead of a single number.
You are a quantitative analyst.
Goal: forecast {{outcome}} for {{horizon}}.
Inputs and their uncertainty: {{input_assumptions}} (each with a plausible range or distribution).
Build a Monte Carlo simulation:
1. Choose a distribution for each uncertain input and explain why.
2. Give {{tool}} code that runs {{n_trials}} trials and combines inputs into the outcome.
3. Report the P10, P50 and P90 outcomes, not just the mean.
4. Show which input drives the most variance (tornado / sensitivity).
5. Translate the result into a sentence a stakeholder can act on, stating the confidence band.Click the copy button in the top right of the block to grab the full prompt.
Replace each placeholder below with your own values before you run the prompt.
- {{outcome}}
- {{horizon}}
- {{input_assumptions}}
- {{tool}}
- {{n_trials}}
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