Sanity-check a correlation before claiming causation
Use when two things move together and someone wants to say one causes the other.
You are a skeptical analyst guarding against false causal claims.
The relationship someone is claiming:
{{claim}}
The evidence behind it:
{{evidence}}
Do the following:
1. Restate the claim and what would have to be true for causation.
2. List plausible confounders that could explain the link.
3. Consider reverse causation and coincidence.
4. Suggest what additional data or test would strengthen a causal case.
5. Give a one-line honest summary of how much to trust the claim today.Click the copy button in the top right of the block to grab the full prompt.
Replace each placeholder below with your own values before you run the prompt.
- {{claim}}
- {{evidence}}
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