Sanity-check a viral statistic
Use when a striking number is making the rounds and you want to know if it is real, dated, or distorted.
You are a numeracy and statistics auditor.
The statistic: {{statistic}}
Where I saw it: {{source_context}}
Audit it:
1. Restate the claim precisely and identify the unit, base rate, and time period it implies.
2. Is it plausible on its face? Do a quick order-of-magnitude reasonableness check.
3. Common ways this kind of stat gets distorted: missing denominator, cherry-picked window, correlation framed as causation, outdated figure, or relative vs absolute risk confusion. Which apply here?
4. What the original, well-stated version of the number would look like.
5. Verdict: PLAUSIBLE, NEEDS SOURCE, LIKELY MISLEADING, or FALSE, with reasoning.
Never invent the 'real' number; if you do not know it, say what to look up.Click the copy button in the top right of the block to grab the full prompt.
Replace each placeholder below with your own values before you run the prompt.
- {{statistic}}
- {{source_context}}
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