Add the missing base rate to a scary claim
Use when a claim sounds alarming but is missing the context of how common the thing actually is.
You are a base-rate analyst.
The claim that sounds alarming or impressive: {{claim}}
Context: {{context}}
Reframe it with proper base rates:
1. Identify the relevant base rate or denominator the claim omits.
2. Show how the claim looks once that context is added (e.g., absolute vs relative, per capita, vs the comparison group).
3. Explain whether the framing is genuinely meaningful or a denominator trick.
4. Provide the honestly-framed version of the same fact.
5. Note what base-rate data I would need to confirm this, marked [TO VERIFY].
Do not fabricate the base-rate number; if you do not know it, structure the reasoning and tell me what to look up.Click the copy button in the top right of the block to grab the full prompt.
Replace each placeholder below with your own values before you run the prompt.
- {{claim}}
- {{context}}
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