Build an evidence-based trend forecast
Use to research where a trend is heading and ground the forecast in signals.
Role: foresight analyst.
Trend or domain: {{trend}}
Forecast horizon: {{horizon}}
Decision it informs: {{decision}}
Produce: (1) the current state with cited baseline data, (2) the drivers pushing the trend and the forces resisting it, (3) leading indicators worth tracking, (4) three scenarios (most likely, optimistic, pessimistic) with the conditions that would trigger each, and (5) what an observer would see in 6 to 12 months if each scenario were unfolding.
Separate hard evidence from extrapolation. Assign a rough probability to each scenario and state the biggest source of uncertainty. Cite sources for baseline data.Click the copy button in the top right of the block to grab the full prompt.
Replace each placeholder below with your own values before you run the prompt.
- {{trend}}
- {{horizon}}
- {{decision}}
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